It used to be imagined that if a person trained himself or herself in the arts of formal logic he or she would think, feel, and act in a manner that was unimpeachable; but experience soon evidenced a fallacy which a little analysis would have made clear.
Logic is concerned with purely intellectual process, whereas life calls for decisions and actions in which knowledge, feelings, emotions, and imagination occupy prominent places, consequently the true method of reasoning cannot be arrived at until these very real factors are taken into account. It may not be amiss therefore, to spend a few moments in a brief discussion of this matter.
The Scientific Method
The Use of Hypothesis in the Discovery of Truth
In Mill’s “Elementary Commercial Geography” the following passage occurs (p. 3); “In many instances, however, the reason for industries being centered in particular towns does not appear until the commercial history of the locality has been studied: for example, the great jute manufacture in Dundee, which is one of the most distant seaports of the United Kingdom from the source of raw material.”
A close examination of Mill’s text book, and of all other geographical text-books we have seen reveals no possible answer to the question, “why has the jute industry sprung up in Dundee?”
We must therefore frame our own hypotheses and put them to ‘the test, trusting that all impossible theories will have been eliminated, and that we shall be left with one which most probably explains the problem under notice.
- Hypothesis No. 1. Climatic conditions are favorable for spinning the jute yarn.
This is obviously so, but there does not seem to be any reason for supposing that Dundee is the only place in the United Kingdom where jute could be manufactured. The hypothesis does not tell us why 39 out of every 43 people who worked in the jute industry in Great Britain should be employed in Dundee.
- Hypothesis No. 2. The industry was accidentally begun in Dundee and has consequently continued there.
In order to test the truth of this theory we shall need to read up the history of Dundee, and so we consult an encyclopedia. It happens that Hypothesis No. 2 turns out to be quite wrong, but in verifying it we learn the following facts, some of which appear to be more relevant than others.
(a) Dundee is the chief seat of the manufacture of coarse linen fabrics, as well as of jute.
(b) It is the seat of a great marmalade industry.
(c) It is the centre of the whaling and seal-fishing industry.
Can it be possible that the secret is connected with one of these facts?
- Hypothesis No3. Dundee provides something which is very necessary in the manufacture of jute products.
How shall we test this hypothesis? What occurs to us at once is to read up the articles in the encyclopedia upon the following subjects (a) linen, (b) marmalade, (c) jute, (d) whaling and seal-fishing.
Results:
(1) The article on linen brings us no nearer the solution of our problem.
(2) The article on marmalade contains no light.
(3) The article on jute contains some significant information which would have meant nothing at all for us had the foregoing fact (c) been overlooked. The information is “Owing, however, to the woody and brittle nature of the fiber. It has to undergo a preliminary treatment peculiar to itself. In order to get the fiber into that soft pliant condition, the jute receives with great precision a proper allowance of oil and water.”
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